Accurate Time-Series Forecasting
Using Amazon Forecast

Across many industries, CT is helping transform companies to embrace the benefits of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for concrete business use cases.
Work with us to see how we can help you improve your bottom line by deploying Amazon Forecast solutions crafted for your organization.

Benefits

50% more accurate forecasts with machine learning

Amazon Forecast provides forecasts that are up to 50% more accurate by using machine learning to automatically discover how time series data and other variables like product features and store locations affect each other. You are better able to understand how these complex relationships ultimately affect demand than what looking at time series data alone can deliver. The models that Amazon Forecast builds are unique to your data, which means the predictions are custom fit to your business.

Reduce forecasting time from months to hours

With Amazon Forecast, you can achieve forecasting accuracy levels that used to take months of engineering in as little as a few hours. You can import time series data and associated data into Amazon Forecast from your Amazon S3 database. From there, Amazon Forecast automatically loads your data, inspects it, and identifies the key attributes needed for forecasting. Amazon Forecast then trains and optimizes your custom model, and hosts them in a highly available environment where it can be used to generate your business forecasts. By automatically handling the complex machine learning required to build, train, tune, and deploy a forecasting model, Amazon Forecast enables you to create accurate forecasts quickly.

Create virtually any time series forecast

Multiple types of time series forecasts are required to run your business, from cash flow to product demand to resource planning. Amazon Forecast allows you to build forecasts for virtually every industry and use case, including retail, logistics, finance, advertising performance, and many more. Using machine learning, Amazon Forecast can work with any historical time series data and use a large library of built-in algorithms to determine the best fit for your particular forecast type automatically.

Secure your business data and peace of mind

Every interaction you have with Amazon Forecast is protected by encryption. Any content processed by Amazon Forecast is encrypted with customer keys through Amazon Key Management Service, and encrypted at rest in the AWS Region where you are using the service. Administrators can also control access to Amazon Forecast through an AWS Identity and Access Management (IAM) permissions policy – ensuring that sensitive information is kept secure and confidential.​

Use Cases

Product demand planning

You can use Amazon Forecast to forecast the appropriate inventory levels for your various store locations. You provide Forecast information like historical sales, pricing, store promotions, store locations, and catalog data from your retail management systems in a CSV (comma-separated values) format into Amazon S3 storage. You can then combine that with associated data like website traffic logs, weather, and shipping schedules. Amazon Forecast will use that information to produce a model that can accurately forecast customer demand for products at the individual store level. Export your forecasts in batch in CSV format and import them back into your retail management systems so that you can determine how much inventory to purchase and allocate per store.

Financial planning

Accurate financial forecasting like sales revenue predictions is fundamental to every business’ success. Amazon Forecast can forecast key financial metrics such as revenue, expenses, and cash flow across multiple time periods and monetary units. You first upload your historical financial time series data to Amazon S3 storage and then import it to Amazon Forecast. After producing a model, Amazon Forecast will provide you with the expected accuracy of the forecast so that you can determine if more data is required before using the model in production. The service can also visualize forecasts with graphs in the Amazon Forecast Console to help you make informed decisions.

Product demand planning

You can use Amazon Forecast to forecast the appropriate inventory levels for your various store locations. You provide Forecast information like historical sales, pricing, store promotions, store locations, and catalog data from your retail management systems in a CSV (comma-separated values) format into Amazon S3 storage. You can then combine that with associated data like website traffic logs, weather, and shipping schedules. Amazon Forecast will use that information to produce a model that can accurately forecast customer demand for products at the individual store level. Export your forecasts in batch in CSV format and import them back into your retail management systems so that you can determine how much inventory to purchase and allocate per store.

Features

Works with any historical time series data to create accurate forecasts

Amazon Forecast can use virtually any historical time series data (e.g., price, promotions, economic performance metrics) to create accurate forecasts for your business. For example, in a retail scenario, Amazon Forecast uses machine learning to process your time series data (such as price, promotions, and store traffic) and combines that with associated data (such as product features, floor placement, and store locations) to determine the complex relationships between them. By combining time series data with additional variables, Amazon Forecast can be 50% more accurate than non-machine learning forecasting tools.

Automated machine learning

No machine learning expertise is required to build an accurate time series-forecasting model that can incorporate time series data from multiple variables at once. Amazon Forecast includes Auto ML capabilities that take care of the machine learning for you. Once you provide your data into Amazon S3, Amazon Forecast can automatically load and inspect the data, select the right algorithms, train a model, provide accuracy metrics, and generate forecasts.

Easily evaluate the accuracy of your forecasting models

Amazon Forecast provides comprehensive accuracy metrics to help you understand the performance of your forecasting model and compare it to previous forecasting models you’ve created that may have looked at a different set of variables or used a different period of time for the historical data. Amazon Forecast allows you to create multiple back test windows and visualize the metrics, helping you evaluate model accuracy over different start dates.

Get a POC

Realize the value of the service in 4 days of hands on support

  • Engage key stakeholders
  • Scope POC
  • Goals definition
  • Align stakeholders & data check
  • A/B testing strategy

  • POC kick off
  • Education & basic build
  • Model build & results evaluation
  • Structure and deploy A/B testing

  • Hands off testing in a live
    environment
  • Or deep dives into historical
    windows

  • Review of A/B test results
  • KPI Impact & financial modelling
  • Wrap up plan – including
  • the path to implementation

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